Brondby vs Aarhus preview
In the Denmark Superliga fixture between Brondby and Aarhus, the 1X2 probabilities show Brondby at 46%, Aarhus at 29%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Brondby has an expected goals figure of 1.80, while Aarhus sits at 1.61. Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 66%. Recent form indicates Brondby has struggled with a record of W-L-W-L-W-L, while Aarhus has been more consistent with W-D-D-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Brondby vs Aarhus: model vs market
| Source | Brondby | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Brondby vs Aarhus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brondby, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brondby | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Aarhus | 3.30 | 3.38 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brondby and Aarhus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Brondby / Aarhus)
- 1.17 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Brondby / Aarhus)
- 1.10 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brondby vs Aarhus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brondby goals. Columns: Aarhus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brondby vs Aarhus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brondby vs Aarhus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brondby | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Aarhus | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brondby or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Aarhus) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brondby win by 2+ | 23% | 4.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Brondby and Aarhus recent form
Brondby
3W 0D 3L
Aarhus
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brondby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Aarhus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brondby at home only, Aarhus away only.
Brondby vs Aarhus head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Brondby 0 · draws 3 · Aarhus 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Aarhus | 1-1 | Brondby | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-05-10 | Brondby | 0-2 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-03-22 | Aarhus | 0-0 | Brondby | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-10-19 | Brondby | 3-3 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-09-21 | Aarhus | 1-0 | Brondby | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Lyngby vs Randers FC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Odense vs Silkeborg 2026-11-01
- Viborg vs AC Horsens 2026-11-01
- FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Brondby, previous: AB Copenhagen – Brondby, 2026-10-27
- Aarhus, previous: Roskilde v Aarhus analysis
- Aarhus, next: Aarhus vs SC Braga: odds and pick