Leones del Norte vs Emelec preview
In the Liga Pro fixture, Leones del Norte has a 41% chance to win against Emelec, who has a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Leones del Norte's expected goals are 1.24, while Emelec's are lower at 0.98.
Both teams to score has a 46% chance, suggesting the possibility of a low-scoring match. However, if Emelec improves their form, which has seen them win 2 of their last 6 matches, they could challenge Leones del Norte's defense. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec: model vs market
| Source | Leones del Norte | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Published | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leones del Norte, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 2.23 | 1.94 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 2.95 | 2.97 | +0.02 |
| Emelec | 3.30 | 3.94 | +0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leones del Norte and Emelec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Leones del Norte / Emelec)
- 0.77 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Leones del Norte / Emelec)
- 1.06 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leones del Norte goals. Columns: Emelec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leones del Norte vs Emelec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Emelec | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.20 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leones del Norte or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Emelec) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win by 2+ | 19% | 5.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leones del Norte and Emelec recent form
Leones del Norte
1W 2D 3L
Emelec
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leones del Norte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leones del Norte at home only, Emelec away only.
Leones del Norte vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Leones del Norte 1 · draws 1 · Emelec 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Emelec | 2-1 | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-03 | Leones del Norte | 2-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2025-10-08 | Leones del Norte | 0-0 | Emelec | Copa Ecuador |
Other Placement Group - 3 fixtures
- Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Leones del Norte, previous: Libertad vs Leones del Norte: odds and pick
- Emelec, previous: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec prediction