Updated

Liga Pro · Placement Group - 3

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC

· Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Libertad to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LibertadDrawGuayaquil City FC

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLibertadDrawGuayaquil City FC
Model57%24%19%
Market49%28%22%
Published51%27%22%
Edge+7%-4%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices Libertad below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Libertad, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.91Now 1.83 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Libertad1.911.83-0.08
Draw3.263.22-0.04
Guayaquil City FC3.744.03+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Libertad and Guayaquil City FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Libertad
1.04Guayaquil City FC
Total expected goals
2.96
Attack rating (Libertad / Guayaquil City FC)
1.23 / 1.33
Defence rating (Libertad / Guayaquil City FC)
0.74 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 4.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1 8.9% 11.4% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 6.1% 6.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.5% 4.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Libertad goals. Columns: Guayaquil City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Libertad51%1.95
Draw27%3.69
Guayaquil City FC22%4.61
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.31
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Libertad or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Guayaquil City FC)49%2.05
Handicap -1Libertad win by 2+34%2.95
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Libertad and Guayaquil City FC recent form

Libertad 3W 1D 2L
Guayaquil City FC 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Libertad at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-4
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.44
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Guayaquil City FC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-8
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
1.53
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Libertad at home only, Guayaquil City FC away only.

Expected lineups

Libertad lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 12 D. Cabezas
  2. 20 J. Rodríguez
  3. 19 O. Quiñónez
  4. 2 R. Morinigo
  5. 6 B. Caicedo
  6. 17 E. Patta
  7. 10 G. Cortéz
  8. 30 J. Bravo
  9. 80 X. Pineda
  10. 70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
  11. 33 A. Chére

Bench: P. Mina, C. Gruezo, Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez, Stick Carlos Castro Palma, E. Caicedo, H. Batalla, J. Guisamano, M. Lucas, D. Coronel, C. Valencia, J. Estacio

Guayaquil City FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 J. Pinos
  2. 6 R. Arias
  3. 4 E. Ladines
  4. 3 Y. Rodríguez
  5. 33 R. Caicedo
  6. 70 P. Mancilla
  7. 14 D. Arroyo
  8. 11 E. Mero
  9. 80 P. González
  10. 17 J. Ayovi
  11. 21 D. Dorregaray

Bench: G. Napa, J. Caicedo, M. Palma, Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar, K. Sambonino, J. Ordóñez, A. Naula, S. Laurino, M. Bolaños, J. Vivar, J. Quiñónez, E. Cabezas

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Libertad 1 · draws 2 · Guayaquil City FC 1.

LibertadDrawsGuayaquil City FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-15Guayaquil City FC2-2LibertadLiga Pro
2026-04-21Libertad0-1Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
2023-10-10Libertad1-0Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
2023-05-06Guayaquil City FC1-1LibertadLiga Pro

Other Placement Group - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match