Firpo vs Alianza: model vs market
| Source | Firpo | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Firpo vs Alianza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Firpo, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firpo | 1.71 | 1.68 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.45 | -0.02 |
| Alianza | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Firpo and Alianza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Firpo / Alianza)
- 1.22 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Firpo / Alianza)
- 0.74 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Firpo vs Alianza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Firpo goals. Columns: Alianza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Firpo vs Alianza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Firpo vs Alianza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Alianza | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Firpo or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win by 2+ | 27% | 3.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Firpo and Alianza recent form
Firpo
3W 3D 0L
Alianza
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Firpo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-1
- Win rate
- 70%
- Goals for / match
- 1.90
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 10
- They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 17 matches.
Alianza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-4
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Firpo at home only, Alianza away only.
Firpo vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Firpo 2 · draws 5 · Alianza 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Alianza | 2-2 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-22 | Firpo | 2-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-25 | Alianza | 2-3 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-12-21 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-28 | Firpo | 0-5 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-27 | Alianza | 3-3 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-10 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-13 | Alianza | 2-1 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-13 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2024-09-26 | Alianza | 3-0 | Firpo | Primera Division |
Before and after this match
- Firpo, previous: Firpo – FAS, 2026-11-01
- Firpo, next: Inter vs Firpo prediction
- Alianza, previous: Atletico Balboa vs Alianza prediction
- Alianza, next: Alianza – Águila, 2026-11-08