Alianza vs Águila preview
In the fixture between Alianza and Águila, the 1X2 probabilities show Águila at 55%, while Alianza sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which aligns with Águila's stronger recent form of 6 matches without a loss.
Both teams to score stands at 62%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 63%, indicating a high-scoring match is possible. However, Alianza's recent form of L-L-W-D-D-L could lead to an unexpected outcome, especially given their head-to-head record of 3 wins against Águila’s 5 in the last 10 matches.
Alianza vs Águila: model vs market
| Source | Alianza | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza and Águila expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Alianza / Águila)
- 0.87 / 1.59
- Defence rating (Alianza / Águila)
- 0.99 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza vs Águila score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: Águila goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza vs Águila goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza vs Águila
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 22% | 4.55 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Águila | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza or draw) | 45% | 2.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Águila) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza and Águila recent form
Alianza
1W 2D 3L
Águila
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-0
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Águila away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-3
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, Águila away only.
Alianza vs Águila head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alianza 3 · draws 2 · Águila 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Águila | 2-2 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-05-10 | Alianza | 0-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-05-06 | Águila | 2-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-16 | Alianza | 0-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-19 | Águila | 0-3 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-02 | Alianza | 0-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-20 | Águila | 1-2 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-13 | Alianza | 0-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-16 | Águila | 0-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-10 | Alianza | 1-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 19 fixtures
- Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Platense vs Cacahuatique 2026-11-07
- Inter v Firpo — match page 2026-11-08
- Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa 2026-11-08
- FAS v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Alianza, previous: Firpo – Alianza, 2026-11-05
- Alianza, next: Fuerte San Francisco v Alianza analysis
- Águila, previous: Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila: odds and pick