FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco preview
In the Primera Division fixture between FAS and Fuerte San Francisco, the 1X2 probabilities show FAS at 56% and Fuerte San Francisco at 20%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs 10% of the time. FAS has a recent form of D-L-D-L-W-W, while Fuerte San Francisco has L-L-L-W-D-L.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 58%. FAS has expected goals of 1.93, significantly higher than Fuerte San Francisco's 1.09. However, FAS's confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in their performance. If Fuerte San Francisco improves their form, they could challenge the expected outcome.
FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco: model vs market
| Source | FAS | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FAS and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (FAS / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 1.02 / 0.94
- Defence rating (FAS / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 0.91 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FAS | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FAS or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Fuerte San Francisco) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FAS and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
FAS
2W 2D 2L
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FAS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Fuerte San Francisco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Fuerte San Francisco away only.
FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FAS 6 · draws 3 · Fuerte San Francisco 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-22 | FAS | 3-1 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-25 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-29 | FAS | 3-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-27 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-8 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-10 | FAS | 0-3 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-06 | FAS | 4-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2024-08-04 | Fuerte San Francisco | 2-2 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2024-04-24 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-2 | FAS | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 19 fixtures
- Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Platense vs Cacahuatique 2026-11-07
- Inter v Firpo — match page 2026-11-08
- Alianza vs Águila — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FAS, previous: Firpo – FAS, 2026-11-01
- FAS, next: FAS vs Inter: odds and pick
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco: odds and pick
- Fuerte San Francisco, next: Fuerte San Francisco v Alianza analysis