Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco: model vs market
| Source | Municipal Limeño | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.45.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Municipal Limeño, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño | 1.58 | 1.57 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.63 | -0.02 |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Municipal Limeño / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 1.17 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Municipal Limeño / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 1.21 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Municipal Limeño goals. Columns: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Municipal Limeño or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Fuerte San Francisco) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal Limeño win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
Municipal Limeño
1W 2D 3L
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Municipal Limeño at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 1.89
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Municipal Limeño at home only, Fuerte San Francisco away only.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Municipal Limeño 7 · draws 2 · Fuerte San Francisco 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-2 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-2 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-14 | Municipal Limeño | 5-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-24 | Municipal Limeño | 2-1 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-03-24 | Municipal Limeño | 1-2 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-01-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-0 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-20 | Municipal Limeño | 4-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2024-08-18 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2024-05-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-2 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
Before and after this match
- Municipal Limeño, previous: Isidro Metapán v Municipal Limeño analysis
- Municipal Limeño, next: Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa analysis
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila: odds and pick
- Fuerte San Francisco, next: FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco: odds and pick