Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila preview
In the fixture between Fuerte San Francisco and Águila, the 1X2 probabilities show Águila at 65%, compared to Fuerte San Francisco's 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Águila's expected goals of 2.27 against Fuerte San Francisco's 1.01.
While the model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 58%, Fuerte San Francisco's recent form of L-L-W-D-L-D could impact their performance. Águila's recent results, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, suggest they are in better shape heading into this match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila: model vs market
| Source | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fuerte San Francisco and Águila expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Águila)
- 0.80 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Águila)
- 1.22 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Columns: Águila goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 15% | 6.89 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Águila | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fuerte San Francisco or draw) | 35% | 2.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Águila) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Fuerte San Francisco and Águila recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 2D 3L
Águila
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fuerte San Francisco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 2 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 16 matches.
Águila away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-3
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fuerte San Francisco at home only, Águila away only.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 0 · draws 4 · Águila 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Águila | 4-1 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-01 | Águila | 1-1 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Águila | Copa Presidente |
| 2026-02-04 | Fuerte San Francisco | 2-3 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-29 | Águila | 3-3 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-10 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-17 | Águila | 3-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-23 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-07 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2024-07-31 | Águila | 1-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 18 fixtures
- Inter vs Platense — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba 2026-10-31
- Isidro Metapán v Municipal Limeño — match page 2026-11-01
- Atletico Balboa vs Alianza 2026-11-01
- Firpo v FAS — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa: odds and pick
- Águila, previous: Águila v FAS analysis