Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba preview
Cacahuatique faces Inca Aruba with a 41% probability of winning, while Inca Aruba has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time in our model. Cacahuatique's expected goals stand at 1.32 compared to Inca Aruba's 1.07, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score has a 50% likelihood, suggesting that Inca Aruba could find the net. Recent form shows Cacahuatique with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Inca Aruba has three losses and two draws. This inconsistency could lead to an unexpected result, making the match unpredictable despite the probabilities.
Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba: model vs market
| Source | Cacahuatique | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cacahuatique and Inca Aruba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Cacahuatique / Inca Aruba)
- 0.77 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Cacahuatique / Inca Aruba)
- 1.18 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cacahuatique goals. Columns: Inca Aruba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cacahuatique | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Inca Aruba | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cacahuatique or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Inca Aruba) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cacahuatique win by 2+ | 19% | 5.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cacahuatique and Inca Aruba recent form
Cacahuatique
1W 2D 3L
Inca Aruba
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cacahuatique at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-5
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.89
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 2 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 16 matches.
Inca Aruba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 4 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 16 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cacahuatique at home only, Inca Aruba away only.
Cacahuatique vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cacahuatique 0 · draws 1 · Inca Aruba 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Inca Aruba | 1-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 18 fixtures
- Inter vs Platense — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Isidro Metapán v Municipal Limeño — match page 2026-11-01
- Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Atletico Balboa vs Alianza 2026-11-01
- Firpo v FAS — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Cacahuatique, previous: Municipal Limeño vs Cacahuatique prediction
- Inca Aruba, previous: Inca Aruba v Inter analysis