Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán preview
Inca Aruba faces Isidro Metapán with a 22% chance of winning for Inca Aruba and a 49% chance for Isidro Metapán. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% probability. Inca Aruba's expected goals stand at 0.86, while Isidro Metapán's is 1.42, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
While Isidro Metapán has shown better recent form with 4 points from their last 6 matches, Inca Aruba has struggled, earning only 2 points. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 40% and both teams to score at 45%. This means the match could still produce surprises, especially if Inca Aruba improves their attacking output.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán: model vs market
| Source | Inca Aruba | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 31% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 31% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Inca Aruba / Isidro Metapán)
- 0.66 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Inca Aruba / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.16 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inca Aruba goals. Columns: Isidro Metapán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 22% | 4.59 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Isidro Metapán | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inca Aruba or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Isidro Metapán) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán recent form
Inca Aruba
1W 1D 4L
Isidro Metapán
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inca Aruba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 4 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Isidro Metapán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-4
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 0.90
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 9 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inca Aruba at home only, Isidro Metapán away only.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Inca Aruba 1 · draws 0 · Isidro Metapán 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Isidro Metapán | 0-1 | Inca Aruba | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 19 fixtures
- Platense vs Cacahuatique 2026-11-07
- Inter v Firpo — match page 2026-11-08
- Alianza vs Águila — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa 2026-11-08
- FAS v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Inca Aruba, previous: Cacahuatique – Inca Aruba, 2026-10-31
- Isidro Metapán, previous: Isidro Metapán v Municipal Limeño analysis
- Isidro Metapán, next: Isidro Metapán – Platense, 2026-11-11