Updated

Primera Division · Apertura - 20

FAS vs Inter

Alin prediction Inter to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FASDrawInter
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

FAS vs Inter preview

In the Primera Division fixture between FAS and Inter, the 1X2 probabilities show FAS at 33%, a draw at 31%, and Inter at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. FAS has an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Inter's is slightly higher at 1.15.

FAS has a recent form of D-L-D-L-W-W, while Inter's form shows D-W-L-D-D-L. Both teams to score stands at 47%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 39%. The head-to-head record favors FAS with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches, while Inter has yet to secure a win. A change in form could affect the outcome.

FAS vs Inter: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFASDrawInter
Model33%31%35%
Market———
Published33%31%35%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FAS and Inter expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11FAS
1.15Inter
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (FAS / Inter)
1.02 / 0.98
Defence rating (FAS / Inter)
0.91 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FAS vs Inter score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 10.6% 6.9% 2.6% 1.0% 1 10.3% 14.6% 7.7% 2.9% 1.1% 2 6.4% 7.4% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 3 2.4% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FAS vs Inter goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FAS vs Inter

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FAS33%2.99
Draw31%3.19
Inter35%2.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.54
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (FAS or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Inter)67%1.50
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+15%6.60
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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FAS and Inter recent form

FAS 2W 2D 2L
Inter 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FAS at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.62
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 8
  • They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Inter away

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-2
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.44
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 9
  • They have won 6 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 17 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Inter away only.

FAS vs Inter head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: FAS 3 · draws 2 · Inter 0.

FASDrawsInter
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-17Inter2-2FASPrimera Division
2026-04-16Inter2-2FASPrimera Division
2026-02-19FAS3-1InterPrimera Division
2025-11-02Inter0-2FASPrimera Division
2025-08-31FAS3-1InterPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 20 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Inter to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Inter