Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza preview
Fuerte San Francisco faces Alianza with a 31% chance of winning for the home side compared to Alianza's 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.27 for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.49 for Alianza. The model suggests a 52% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Fuerte San Francisco's recent form shows D-L-L-L-W-D, while Alianza has L-L-W-D-D-L. Alianza has dominated their last 10 meetings with 8 wins, which could influence the match outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza: model vs market
| Source | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Alianza)
- 0.94 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Alianza)
- 1.34 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Columns: Alianza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Alianza | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fuerte San Francisco or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza win by 2+ | 21% | 4.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 2D 3L
Alianza
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fuerte San Francisco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-5
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
Alianza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-5
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fuerte San Francisco at home only, Alianza away only.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 1 · draws 1 · Alianza 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Alianza | 2-2 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-05-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-08 | Alianza | 3-2 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-16 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-3 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-14 | Alianza | 1-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-18 | Alianza | 2-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-15 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-23 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-27 | Alianza | 2-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-01 | Alianza | 2-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
- Cacahuatique vs Firpo — team news & stats 2026-11-10
- Isidro Metapán vs Platense 2026-11-11
- FAS vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-11-12
Before and after this match
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: FAS vs Fuerte San Francisco: odds and pick
- Alianza, previous: Alianza – Águila, 2026-11-08