AC Oulu vs VPS preview
In the upcoming match between AC Oulu and VPS, the 1X2 probabilities show AC Oulu at 50%, VPS at 20%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model. AC Oulu's expected goals stand at 1.35, while VPS has a lower figure of 0.76, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form reveals some inconsistency, with AC Oulu winning only 1 of their last 6 matches. VPS has also struggled, winning just 2 of their last 6. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 36%, and both teams to score is at 41%, suggesting that while a low-scoring match is likely, surprises can happen.
AC Oulu vs VPS: model vs market
| Source | AC Oulu | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices AC Oulu below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AC Oulu vs VPS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Oulu, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 2.50 | 2.34 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| VPS | 2.67 | 2.88 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Oulu and VPS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (AC Oulu / VPS)
- 0.98 / 0.51
- Defence rating (AC Oulu / VPS)
- 1.06 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Oulu vs VPS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Oulu goals. Columns: VPS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Oulu vs VPS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Oulu vs VPS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| VPS | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Oulu or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or VPS) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Oulu win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AC Oulu and VPS recent form
AC Oulu
3W 0D 3L
VPS
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Oulu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-6
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Oulu at home only, VPS away only.
AC Oulu vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AC Oulu 4 · draws 2 · VPS 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | VPS | 1-0 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-23 | VPS | 5-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | AC Oulu | 1-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-01-24 | VPS | 1-4 | AC Oulu | League Cup |
| 2025-10-04 | AC Oulu | 2-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-28 | AC Oulu | 2-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-05 | VPS | 4-3 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-02-08 | VPS | 2-1 | AC Oulu | League Cup |
| 2025-01-17 | AC Oulu | 3-3 | VPS | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-06-19 | VPS | 1-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 30 fixtures
- Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- KuPS vs Gnistan 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- AC Oulu, previous: Gnistan v AC Oulu analysis
- AC Oulu, next: AC Oulu vs KuPS: odds and pick
- VPS, previous: VPS – Inter Turku, 2026-10-24
- VPS, next: VPS vs HJK Helsinki prediction