KuPS vs Gnistan preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between KuPS and Gnistan, the 1X2 probabilities show KuPS at 58% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. KuPS has a higher expected goals figure of 1.45 compared to Gnistan’s 1.26, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, KuPS's recent form is concerning, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Gnistan has shown some resilience with 2 draws in their last 3 games. The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability for both teams to score, which could impact the outcome if Gnistan manages to find the net.
KuPS vs Gnistan: model vs market
| Source | KuPS | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
KuPS vs Gnistan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KuPS, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 1.51 | 1.45 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.55 | +0.45 |
| Gnistan | 5.34 | 6.20 | +0.86 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KuPS and Gnistan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (KuPS / Gnistan)
- 0.80 / 0.96
- Defence rating (KuPS / Gnistan)
- 0.96 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KuPS vs Gnistan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KuPS goals. Columns: Gnistan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KuPS vs Gnistan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KuPS vs Gnistan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Gnistan | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KuPS or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Gnistan) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win by 2+ | 20% | 5.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
KuPS and Gnistan recent form
KuPS
1W 1D 4L
Gnistan
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KuPS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Gnistan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KuPS at home only, Gnistan away only.
KuPS vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KuPS 7 · draws 3 · Gnistan 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Gnistan | 1-1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-08-01 | Gnistan | 0-1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-11 | KuPS | 1-0 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-10-30 | KuPS | 1-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-09-27 | Gnistan | 0-4 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-01 | KuPS | 6-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-27 | Gnistan | 1-2 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-07-07 | KuPS | 3-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-19 | Gnistan | 0-0 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2021-03-20 | KuPS | 5-0 | Gnistan | Suomen Cup |
Other Championship Group - 30 fixtures
- AC Oulu v VPS — match page 2026-10-28
- Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- KuPS, previous: HJK Helsinki vs KuPS: odds and pick
- KuPS, next: AC Oulu vs KuPS: odds and pick
- Gnistan, previous: Gnistan v AC Oulu analysis
- Gnistan, next: Inter Turku – Gnistan, 2026-11-02