Inter Turku vs Gnistan preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between Inter Turku and Gnistan, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter Turku at 46%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 14%. Inter Turku's expected goals stand at 1.31, while Gnistan has 0.83. This suggests a solid edge for Inter Turku, especially given their recent form of W-L-W-D-W-W compared to Gnistan's L-L-L-D-D-W.
However, the match could take an unexpected turn. The probability for both teams to score is 43%, indicating a chance for Gnistan to find the net. Additionally, with only a 36% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, a low-scoring game could also emerge if both teams struggle offensively.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan: model vs market
| Source | Inter Turku | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inter Turku and Gnistan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Inter Turku / Gnistan)
- 0.73 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Inter Turku / Gnistan)
- 0.64 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter Turku goals. Columns: Gnistan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter Turku vs Gnistan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Turku | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Gnistan | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.35 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter Turku or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Gnistan) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Turku win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inter Turku and Gnistan recent form
Inter Turku
4W 1D 1L
Gnistan
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter Turku at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter Turku at home only, Gnistan away only.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inter Turku 6 · draws 2 · Gnistan 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Gnistan | 0-0 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-07-26 | Inter Turku | 1-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-05 | Gnistan | 2-0 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-01-17 | Gnistan | 0-3 | Inter Turku | League Cup |
| 2025-10-22 | Inter Turku | 2-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-09-13 | Gnistan | 0-2 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-27 | Gnistan | 2-2 | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-12 | Inter Turku | 3-0 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-02-15 | Inter Turku | 2-0 | Gnistan | League Cup |
| 2024-10-19 | Inter Turku | 3-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 31 fixtures
- AC Oulu v KuPS — match page 2026-11-01
- VPS vs HJK Helsinki — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Inter Turku, previous: Inter Turku – HJK Helsinki, 2026-10-29
- Gnistan, previous: KuPS v Gnistan analysis