Gnistan vs VPS preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between Gnistan and VPS, the 1X2 probabilities show Gnistan at 52% and VPS at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 16% chance of occurring. Gnistan has an expected goals figure of 1.39, while VPS sits at 0.71.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Gnistan recording four draws and two losses in their last six matches, while VPS has one win and five losses. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams to score stands at 39%. These lower probabilities suggest that the match could be low-scoring, which would contradict the expectations for more goals.
Gnistan vs VPS: model vs market
| Source | Gnistan | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
- The market prices Gnistan below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gnistan vs VPS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gnistan, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 2.05 | 2.01 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.73 | -0.02 |
| VPS | 3.20 | 3.17 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gnistan and VPS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Gnistan / VPS)
- 1.00 / 0.43
- Defence rating (Gnistan / VPS)
- 1.27 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gnistan vs VPS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gnistan goals. Columns: VPS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gnistan vs VPS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gnistan vs VPS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| VPS | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gnistan or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or VPS) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gnistan and VPS recent form
Gnistan
0W 2D 4L
VPS
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gnistan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gnistan at home only, VPS away only.
Gnistan vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gnistan 3 · draws 4 · VPS 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | VPS | 1-0 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-27 | Gnistan | 1-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-09 | VPS | 1-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-08-15 | Gnistan | 0-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-18 | VPS | 0-0 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-10-23 | VPS | 0-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-08-04 | Gnistan | 3-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-04-20 | VPS | 3-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2021-10-16 | Gnistan | 1-4 | VPS | Ykkönen |
| 2021-07-18 | Gnistan | 2-0 | VPS | Ykkönen |
Other Championship Group - 32 fixtures
- HJK Helsinki v AC Oulu — match page 2026-11-08
- KuPS vs Inter Turku — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gnistan, previous: Inter Turku – Gnistan, 2026-11-02
- VPS, previous: VPS vs HJK Helsinki prediction