HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu preview
HJK Helsinki faces AC Oulu with a 56% chance of winning, while Oulu has a 21% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with HJK's expected goals of 2.08 compared to Oulu's 1.21. With a solid recent form of W-D-W-W-W-D for HJK and W-D-W-W-L-W for Oulu, both teams show competitive spirits.
The model suggests a 64% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If HJK's recent form falters or Oulu's attack performs better than expected, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu: model vs market
| Source | HJK Helsinki | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HJK Helsinki, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 1.14 | 1.13 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 8.00 | 8.10 | +0.10 |
| AC Oulu | 15.00 | 13.50 | -1.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (HJK Helsinki / AC Oulu)
- 1.70 / 0.97
- Defence rating (HJK Helsinki / AC Oulu)
- 0.80 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HJK Helsinki goals. Columns: AC Oulu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.23 | |
| AC Oulu | 9% | 10.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HJK Helsinki or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Oulu) | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu recent form
HJK Helsinki
5W 1D 0L
AC Oulu
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HJK Helsinki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HJK Helsinki at home only, AC Oulu away only.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HJK Helsinki 7 · draws 0 · AC Oulu 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | AC Oulu | 3-4 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-08-09 | AC Oulu | 0-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-11 | HJK Helsinki | 0-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-03-14 | AC Oulu | 2-1 | HJK Helsinki | League Cup |
| 2025-08-21 | HJK Helsinki | 1-0 | AC Oulu | Suomen Cup |
| 2025-07-20 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-06-14 | AC Oulu | 0-4 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-07-27 | HJK Helsinki | 3-0 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-31 | AC Oulu | 1-0 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-08-27 | AC Oulu | 1-3 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 32 fixtures
- KuPS vs Inter Turku — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Gnistan vs VPS 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- HJK Helsinki, previous: VPS vs HJK Helsinki prediction
- AC Oulu, previous: AC Oulu vs KuPS: odds and pick