VPS vs HJK Helsinki preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between VPS and HJK Helsinki, the 1X2 probabilities show HJK Helsinki at 71%, while VPS stands at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with HJK Helsinki's expected goals of 2.18 compared to VPS's 0.66.
However, VPS has won 3 of their last 10 encounters against HJK Helsinki, which could suggest they might find a way to disrupt the expected outcome. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals is projected at 54%, the chance of both teams to score is lower at 44%. This indicates that while HJK Helsinki is favored to win, there are factors that could lead to a different match result.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki: model vs market
| Source | VPS | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 20% | 71% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 9% | 20% | 71% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
VPS and HJK Helsinki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (VPS / HJK Helsinki)
- 0.51 / 1.49
- Defence rating (VPS / HJK Helsinki)
- 1.07 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VPS goals. Columns: HJK Helsinki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VPS vs HJK Helsinki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VPS | 9% | 11.00 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| HJK Helsinki | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VPS or draw) | 29% | 3.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or HJK Helsinki) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
VPS and HJK Helsinki recent form
VPS
1W 0D 5L
HJK Helsinki
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VPS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: VPS at home only, HJK Helsinki away only.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: VPS 3 · draws 1 · HJK Helsinki 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | HJK Helsinki | 6-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-07-18 | HJK Helsinki | 2-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-05-22 | VPS | 2-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-05 | VPS | 0-2 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-26 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-09-20 | VPS | 1-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-09-01 | VPS | 1-3 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-17 | HJK Helsinki | 1-2 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-10-08 | VPS | 3-2 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2023-04-19 | HJK Helsinki | 4-0 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 31 fixtures
- AC Oulu v KuPS — match page 2026-11-01
- Inter Turku vs Gnistan 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- VPS, previous: AC Oulu vs VPS prediction
- HJK Helsinki, previous: Inter Turku – HJK Helsinki, 2026-10-29