HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan preview
In the upcoming match between HJK Helsinki and Gnistan, HJK Helsinki has a 52% chance of winning compared to Gnistan's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. HJK Helsinki has an expected goals figure of 1.61, while Gnistan's is 0.93.
Both teams to score has a 49% chance, indicating a balanced possibility of scoring. Recent form shows HJK Helsinki with 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Gnistan has 3 draws and 2 wins. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, especially given the head-to-head record, which shows 4 wins for each team in their last 10 meetings.
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan: model vs market
| Source | HJK Helsinki | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | -11% | +6% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HJK Helsinki, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 1.48 | 1.45 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.75 | +0.25 |
| Gnistan | 5.36 | 5.85 | +0.49 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HJK Helsinki and Gnistan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (HJK Helsinki / Gnistan)
- 1.43 / 0.90
- Defence rating (HJK Helsinki / Gnistan)
- 0.82 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HJK Helsinki goals. Columns: Gnistan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Gnistan | 17% | 5.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HJK Helsinki or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Gnistan) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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HJK Helsinki and Gnistan recent form
HJK Helsinki
4W 2D 0L
Gnistan
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HJK Helsinki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: HJK Helsinki at home only, Gnistan away only.
HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HJK Helsinki 4 · draws 2 · Gnistan 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Gnistan | 1-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-08-23 | HJK Helsinki | 2-3 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-18 | Gnistan | 0-3 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-03-10 | HJK Helsinki | 3-0 | Gnistan | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-02-07 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | Gnistan | League Cup |
| 2025-11-03 | Gnistan | 2-2 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-10-03 | HJK Helsinki | 2-3 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-07-28 | Gnistan | 2-4 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-04-22 | HJK Helsinki | 0-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-01-11 | HJK Helsinki | 0-1 | Gnistan | League Cup |
Other Championship Group - 28 fixtures
- Inter Turku vs AC Oulu — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- KuPS vs VPS 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- HJK Helsinki, previous: AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki analysis
- Gnistan, previous: VPS – Gnistan, 2026-10-12