KuPS vs VPS preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between KuPS and VPS, the 1X2 probabilities show KuPS at 52% to win, while VPS sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 17% chance. KuPS has an expected goals figure of 1.17 compared to VPS's 0.71, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. KuPS has struggled with 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while VPS has won 2 of their last 6. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 29%, and both teams to score is at 36%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.
KuPS vs VPS: model vs market
| Source | KuPS | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 35% | 21% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 18% |
| Edge | -16% | +11% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.06 vs 0.66.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
KuPS vs VPS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KuPS, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 1.71 | 1.56 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | +0.18 |
| VPS | 4.24 | 5.67 | +1.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KuPS and VPS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.72
- Attack rating (KuPS / VPS)
- 0.65 / 0.65
- Defence rating (KuPS / VPS)
- 0.74 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KuPS vs VPS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KuPS goals. Columns: VPS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KuPS vs VPS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KuPS vs VPS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| VPS | 18% | 5.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 4.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.04 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KuPS or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or VPS) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
KuPS and VPS recent form
KuPS
1W 2D 3L
VPS
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KuPS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-2
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
VPS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KuPS at home only, VPS away only.
KuPS vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KuPS 6 · draws 3 · VPS 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | VPS | 0-2 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-07-25 | KuPS | 3-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-13 | VPS | 1-1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-10 | KuPS | 0-0 | VPS | Suomen Cup |
| 2026-01-31 | KuPS | 3-1 | VPS | League Cup |
| 2025-07-19 | VPS | 1-1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-05-25 | KuPS | 0-2 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-02-01 | KuPS | 2-0 | VPS | League Cup |
| 2024-09-14 | KuPS | 3-1 | VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-22 | VPS | 1-3 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 28 fixtures
- HJK Helsinki v Gnistan — match page 2026-10-17
- Inter Turku vs AC Oulu — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- KuPS, previous: KuPS vs Trabzonspor prediction
- KuPS, next: Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS: odds and pick
- VPS, previous: VPS – Gnistan, 2026-10-12