HJK Helsinki vs KuPS preview
HJK Helsinki faces KuPS with a 64% probability of winning, while KuPS has only a 14% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with HJK's expected goals of 2.01 compared to KuPS's 0.83. The model also suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score.
Despite HJK's strong recent form of W-W-W-D-D-W, their head-to-head record shows KuPS has 5 wins in the last 10 matches. This could impact the outcome, as historical performance can influence team morale and tactics. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS: model vs market
| Source | HJK Helsinki | Draw | KuPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | +15% | -3% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices HJK Helsinki below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HJK Helsinki, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.66 | +0.00 |
| KuPS | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HJK Helsinki and KuPS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (HJK Helsinki / KuPS)
- 1.50 / 0.80
- Defence rating (HJK Helsinki / KuPS)
- 0.76 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HJK Helsinki goals. Columns: KuPS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HJK Helsinki vs KuPS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| KuPS | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HJK Helsinki or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or KuPS) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win by 2+ | 40% | 2.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HJK Helsinki and KuPS recent form
HJK Helsinki
4W 2D 0L
KuPS
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HJK Helsinki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KuPS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: HJK Helsinki at home only, KuPS away only.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HJK Helsinki 2 · draws 3 · KuPS 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | KuPS | 0-0 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-06-27 | HJK Helsinki | 0-4 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-26 | KuPS | 1-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-11-09 | HJK Helsinki | 0-2 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-10-19 | KuPS | 3-1 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-09-20 | HJK Helsinki | 1-0 | KuPS | Suomen Cup |
| 2025-06-27 | KuPS | 3-0 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-05-31 | HJK Helsinki | 0-0 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-03-15 | HJK Helsinki | 3-1 | KuPS | League Cup |
| 2024-10-19 | KuPS | 1-0 | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
Other Championship Group - 29 fixtures
- VPS v Inter Turku — match page 2026-10-24
- Gnistan vs AC Oulu — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- HJK Helsinki, previous: HJK Helsinki v Gnistan analysis
- KuPS, previous: Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS: odds and pick
- KuPS, next: KuPS v Gent analysis