Gnistan vs AC Oulu preview
In the Veikkausliiga fixture between Gnistan and AC Oulu, the 1X2 probabilities show Gnistan at 43%, while AC Oulu stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. Gnistan's expected goals are 1.32 compared to AC Oulu's 0.97, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from predictions. Both teams to score has a 47% probability, suggesting a chance for AC Oulu to find the net. Additionally, Gnistan's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu: model vs market
| Source | Gnistan | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gnistan, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 2.16 | 2.16 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.34 | +0.00 |
| AC Oulu | 3.23 | 3.23 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gnistan and AC Oulu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Gnistan / AC Oulu)
- 0.82 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Gnistan / AC Oulu)
- 0.99 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gnistan goals. Columns: AC Oulu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gnistan vs AC Oulu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| AC Oulu | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gnistan or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Oulu) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win by 2+ | 17% | 5.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gnistan and AC Oulu recent form
Gnistan
1W 3D 2L
AC Oulu
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gnistan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-6
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gnistan at home only, AC Oulu away only.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gnistan 6 · draws 1 · AC Oulu 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | AC Oulu | 1-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-07-18 | AC Oulu | 0-2 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2026-04-04 | Gnistan | 1-5 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-08-25 | Gnistan | 3-2 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2025-05-10 | AC Oulu | 2-3 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-09-27 | Gnistan | 1-0 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-08-18 | Gnistan | 2-0 | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga |
| 2024-05-11 | AC Oulu | 1-1 | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| 2020-10-17 | Gnistan | 1-2 | AC Oulu | Ykkönen |
| 2020-06-27 | AC Oulu | 2-0 | Gnistan | Ykkönen |
Other Championship Group - 29 fixtures
- VPS v Inter Turku — match page 2026-10-24
- HJK Helsinki vs KuPS 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Gnistan, previous: HJK Helsinki v Gnistan analysis
- AC Oulu, previous: Inter Turku vs AC Oulu: odds and pick