Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi: model vs market
| Source | Aragvi Dusheti | Draw | Telavi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aragvi Dusheti and Telavi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Telavi)
- 1.06 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Telavi)
- 1.19 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aragvi Dusheti goals. Columns: Telavi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aragvi Dusheti | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Telavi | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aragvi Dusheti or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Telavi) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aragvi Dusheti win by 2+ | 17% | 5.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aragvi Dusheti and Telavi recent form
Aragvi Dusheti
2W 1D 3L
Telavi
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aragvi Dusheti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-5
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telavi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aragvi Dusheti at home only, Telavi away only.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Telavi head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aragvi Dusheti 1 · draws 0 · Telavi 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Telavi | 1-0 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Aragvi Dusheti | 2-1 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Telavi | 1-0 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
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