Samtredia vs Sioni: model vs market
| Source | Samtredia | Draw | Sioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.00 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Samtredia and Sioni expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.97
- Attack rating (Samtredia / Sioni)
- 1.76 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Samtredia / Sioni)
- 0.83 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Samtredia vs Sioni score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Samtredia goals. Columns: Sioni goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Samtredia vs Sioni goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Samtredia vs Sioni
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samtredia | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.12 | |
| Sioni | 8% | 11.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Samtredia or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Sioni) | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win by 2+ | 59% | 1.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Samtredia and Sioni recent form
Samtredia
5W 0D 1L
Sioni
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Samtredia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sioni away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-7
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Samtredia at home only, Sioni away only.
Samtredia vs Sioni head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Samtredia 4 · draws 1 · Sioni 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Sioni | 3-2 | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Samtredia | 2-1 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Sioni | 3-0 | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Samtredia | 2-1 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Sioni | 0-3 | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2025-05-15 | Samtredia | 0-0 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2025-03-29 | Sioni | 0-1 | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
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