Gori vs Merani Martvili Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Gori vs Merani Martvili: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Gori	Draw	Merani Martvili
Model	61%	23%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	23%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.93.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Gori and Merani Martvili expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Gori

0.93Merani Martvili

Total expected goals: 2.92
Attack rating (Gori / Merani Martvili): 1.11 / 0.76
Defence rating (Gori / Merani Martvili): 1.11 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gori vs Merani Martvili score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1 9.8% 11.0% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 3 7.1% 6.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 5.6% 5.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Gori goals. Columns: Merani Martvili goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gori vs Merani Martvili goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gori vs Merani Martvili

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Gori	61%	1.64
	Draw	23%	4.34
	Merani Martvili	16%	6.33
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.79
	Under 2.5	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.88
	No	47%	2.13
Double chance	1X (Gori or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Merani Martvili)	39%	2.57
Handicap -1	Gori win by 2+	38%	2.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Gori and Merani Martvili recent form

Gori 2W 2D 2L

Merani Martvili 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gori at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-5-4
Win rate: 31%
Goals for / match: 1.31
Goals against / match: 1.38
Clean sheets: 2 of 13

They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.

Merani Martvili away

Record (W-D-L): 3-3-7
Win rate: 23%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.69
Clean sheets: 2 of 13

They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gori at home only, Merani Martvili away only.

Gori vs Merani Martvili head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Gori 1 · draws 0 · Merani Martvili 2.

33% 0% 67%

GoriDrawsMerani Martvili

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-06-22	Merani Martvili	0-2	Gori	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-02	Gori	0-3	Merani Martvili	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-03-01	Merani Martvili	2-0	Gori	Erovnuli Liga 2

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Prediction snapshot Gori to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Gori