Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Shturmi	Draw	Kolkheti Poti
Model	44%	32%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	44%	32%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.82.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Shturmi and Kolkheti Poti expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Shturmi

0.82Kolkheti Poti

Total expected goals: 2.02
Attack rating (Shturmi / Kolkheti Poti): 1.02 / 0.90
Defence rating (Shturmi / Kolkheti Poti): 0.83 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.6% 9.5% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 1 14.7% 14.3% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2 9.6% 7.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Shturmi goals. Columns: Kolkheti Poti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 33%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Shturmi	44%	2.28
	Draw	32%	3.08
	Kolkheti Poti	24%	4.22
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	33%	3.04
	Under 2.5	67%	1.49
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.48
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (Shturmi or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or Kolkheti Poti)	56%	1.78
Handicap -1	Shturmi win by 2+	20%	5.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Shturmi and Kolkheti Poti recent form

Shturmi 3W 1D 2L

Kolkheti Poti 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Shturmi at home

Record (W-D-L): 8-1-4
Win rate: 62%
Goals for / match: 1.15
Goals against / match: 0.77
Clean sheets: 7 of 13

They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.

Kolkheti Poti away

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-9
Win rate: 8%
Goals for / match: 0.92
Goals against / match: 1.69
Clean sheets: 1 of 13

They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Shturmi at home only, Kolkheti Poti away only.

Shturmi vs Kolkheti Poti head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Shturmi 1 · draws 2 · Kolkheti Poti 0.

33% 67% 0%

ShturmiDrawsKolkheti Poti

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-06-22	Kolkheti Poti	0-0	Shturmi	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-02	Shturmi	1-0	Kolkheti Poti	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-03-01	Kolkheti Poti	1-1	Shturmi	Erovnuli Liga 2

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Prediction snapshot Shturmi to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Shturmi