Odishi 1919 vs Gareji preview
Odishi 1919 faces Gareji in the Erovnuli Liga 2, with a 42% chance of winning according to model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The market suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score.
Odishi 1919's recent form shows a struggle with only one draw in their last six matches, while Gareji has improved with two wins in their last three. The head-to-head record favors Odishi 1919, who has one win and two draws in their last three encounters against Gareji. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that these probabilities are model-only and could change based on team performance on the day.
Odishi 1919 vs Gareji: model vs market
| Source | Odishi 1919 | Draw | Gareji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Odishi 1919 and Gareji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Odishi 1919 / Gareji)
- 0.80 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Odishi 1919 / Gareji)
- 1.01 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Odishi 1919 vs Gareji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Odishi 1919 goals. Columns: Gareji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Odishi 1919 vs Gareji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Odishi 1919 vs Gareji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Odishi 1919 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Gareji | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Odishi 1919 or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Gareji) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Odishi 1919 win by 2+ | 21% | 4.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Odishi 1919 and Gareji recent form
Odishi 1919
1W 1D 4L
Gareji
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Odishi 1919 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gareji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Odishi 1919 at home only, Gareji away only.
Odishi 1919 vs Gareji head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Odishi 1919 1 · draws 2 · Gareji 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Gareji | 1-2 | Odishi 1919 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Odishi 1919 | 1-1 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gareji | 1-1 | Odishi 1919 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
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