Aurora vs Xelajú: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aurora and Xelajú expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Aurora / Xelajú)
- 1.05 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Aurora / Xelajú)
- 1.35 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Xelajú score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Xelajú goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Xelajú goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Xelajú
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Xelajú | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Xelajú) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 20% | 4.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Xelajú recent form
Aurora
1W 0D 5L
Xelajú
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Xelajú away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Xelajú away only.
Aurora vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aurora 1 · draws 2 · Xelajú 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Xelajú | 3-1 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-08 | Aurora | 0-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-21 | Xelajú | 4-0 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-16 | Aurora | 3-2 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | Xelajú | 2-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Malacateco vs Guastatoya 2026-10-11
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Comunicaciones 2026-10-11
- Municipal v Marquense — match page 2026-10-11
- Antigua GFC vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-10-12