Suchitepéquez vs Mixco Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Suchitepéquez vs Mixco: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Suchitepéquez	Draw	Mixco
Model	43%	25%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	25%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Suchitepéquez and Mixco expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Suchitepéquez

1.52Mixco

Total expected goals: 3.28
Attack rating (Suchitepéquez / Mixco): 0.83 / 1.12
Defence rating (Suchitepéquez / Mixco): 1.60 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Suchitepéquez vs Mixco score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 2.2% 1.2% 1 5.6% 11.1% 7.7% 3.9% 2.1% 2 5.8% 8.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.8% 3 3.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 4+ 2.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Suchitepéquez goals. Columns: Mixco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Suchitepéquez vs Mixco goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Suchitepéquez vs Mixco

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Suchitepéquez	43%	2.35
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Mixco	32%	3.08
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.57
	Under 2.5	36%	2.75
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.52
	No	34%	2.91
Double chance	1X (Suchitepéquez or draw)	68%	1.48
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Mixco)	57%	1.74
Handicap -1	Suchitepéquez win by 2+	23%	4.33
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Suchitepéquez and Mixco recent form

Suchitepéquez 0W 2D 4L

Mixco 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Suchitepéquez at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-1
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.40
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.

Mixco away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-5
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.60
Goals against / match: 2.40
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Suchitepéquez at home only, Mixco away only.

Suchitepéquez vs Mixco head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Suchitepéquez 0 · draws 0 · Mixco 1.

0% 0% 100%

SuchitepéquezDrawsMixco

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-01	Mixco	2-0	Suchitepéquez	Guatemala Liga Nacional

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Prediction snapshot Suchitepéquez to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Suchitepéquez