Municipal vs Marquense: model vs market
| Source | Municipal | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Municipal and Marquense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Municipal / Marquense)
- 1.40 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Municipal / Marquense)
- 0.57 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Municipal vs Marquense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Municipal goals. Columns: Marquense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Municipal vs Marquense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Municipal vs Marquense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.94 | |
| Marquense | 5% | 20.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.24 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Municipal or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Marquense) | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Municipal and Marquense recent form
Municipal
4W 2D 0L
Marquense
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Municipal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Marquense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Municipal at home only, Marquense away only.
Municipal vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Municipal 5 · draws 0 · Marquense 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Marquense | 1-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-19 | Marquense | 1-3 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-01 | Municipal | 1-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-30 | Marquense | 0-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-20 | Municipal | 3-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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