Malacateco vs Guastatoya: model vs market
| Source | Malacateco | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Malacateco and Guastatoya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Malacateco / Guastatoya)
- 0.81 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Malacateco / Guastatoya)
- 1.08 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malacateco goals. Columns: Guastatoya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malacateco vs Guastatoya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Guastatoya | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malacateco or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Guastatoya) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malacateco win by 2+ | 16% | 6.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Malacateco and Guastatoya recent form
Malacateco
2W 1D 3L
Guastatoya
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malacateco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guastatoya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malacateco at home only, Guastatoya away only.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Malacateco 2 · draws 1 · Guastatoya 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Guastatoya | 4-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-03 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-15 | Guastatoya | 1-1 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-20 | Malacateco | 0-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-09 | Guastatoya | 1-2 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
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