Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco: model vs market
| Source | Cobán Imperial | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.88.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cobán Imperial, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobán Imperial | 1.69 | 1.58 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.60 | +0.09 |
| Malacateco | 4.60 | 5.05 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cobán Imperial and Malacateco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Cobán Imperial / Malacateco)
- 1.04 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Cobán Imperial / Malacateco)
- 1.19 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cobán Imperial goals. Columns: Malacateco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobán Imperial | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Malacateco | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cobán Imperial or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Malacateco) | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cobán Imperial win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cobán Imperial and Malacateco recent form
Cobán Imperial
1W 3D 2L
Malacateco
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cobán Imperial at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cobán Imperial at home only, Malacateco away only.
Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cobán Imperial 4 · draws 1 · Malacateco 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Malacateco | 1-1 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-17 | Malacateco | 2-0 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-24 | Cobán Imperial | 2-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-15 | Cobán Imperial | 0-1 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-13 | Malacateco | 3-0 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-03 | Cobán Imperial | 2-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-01 | Malacateco | 0-1 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-03-07 | Malacateco | 4-1 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-01-18 | Cobán Imperial | 1-0 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-09-21 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Marquense v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-10-03
- Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-04
- Guastatoya vs Aurora — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Comunicaciones v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-05