Guastatoya vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Guastatoya | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 17% | 9% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Published | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Edge | +12% | -7% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Guastatoya below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Guastatoya vs Aurora odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guastatoya, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guastatoya | 1.41 | 1.49 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 4.04 | 3.80 | -0.25 |
| Aurora | 7.00 | 6.50 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guastatoya and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Guastatoya / Aurora)
- 1.15 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Guastatoya / Aurora)
- 0.91 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guastatoya vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guastatoya goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guastatoya vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guastatoya vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 65% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Aurora | 13% | 7.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guastatoya or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win by 2+ | 52% | 1.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Guastatoya and Aurora recent form
Guastatoya
4W 1D 1L
Aurora
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guastatoya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guastatoya at home only, Aurora away only.
Guastatoya vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guastatoya 3 · draws 1 · Aurora 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Aurora | 0-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-19 | Aurora | 0-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-28 | Guastatoya | 2-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-28 | Guastatoya | 3-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-20 | Aurora | 1-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Marquense v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-10-03
- Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco 2026-10-03
- Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-04
- Comunicaciones v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-05