Marquense vs Antigua GFC: model vs market
| Source | Marquense | Draw | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.13.
- The market prices Marquense below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Marquense vs Antigua GFC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marquense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquense | 2.24 | 2.00 | -0.24 |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.24 | +0.12 |
| Antigua GFC | 3.09 | 3.55 | +0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marquense and Antigua GFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Marquense / Antigua GFC)
- 0.77 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Marquense / Antigua GFC)
- 1.01 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marquense vs Antigua GFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marquense goals. Columns: Antigua GFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marquense vs Antigua GFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marquense vs Antigua GFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Antigua GFC | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marquense or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Antigua GFC) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Marquense and Antigua GFC recent form
Marquense
3W 1D 2L
Antigua GFC
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marquense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Antigua GFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marquense at home only, Antigua GFC away only.
Marquense vs Antigua GFC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Marquense 2 · draws 3 · Antigua GFC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Antigua GFC | 3-1 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-24 | Antigua GFC | 1-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-01 | Marquense | 1-1 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-16 | Marquense | 3-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-20 | Antigua GFC | 3-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-05 | Antigua GFC | 1-3 | Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-02 | Marquense | 0-0 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-13 | Antigua GFC | 4-2 | Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| 2018-04-25 | Marquense | 2-2 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2018-02-25 | Antigua GFC | 4-1 | Marquense | Liga Nacional |
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