Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro: model vs market
| Source | Xelajú | Draw | Deportivo San Pedro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.93.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Xelajú, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 1.46 | 1.46 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 6.15 | 6.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Xelajú and Deportivo San Pedro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Xelajú / Deportivo San Pedro)
- 1.47 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Xelajú / Deportivo San Pedro)
- 1.11 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Xelajú goals. Columns: Deportivo San Pedro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 62% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 15% | 6.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Xelajú or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo San Pedro) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Xelajú and Deportivo San Pedro recent form
Xelajú
2W 2D 2L
Deportivo San Pedro
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Xelajú at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo San Pedro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Xelajú at home only, Deportivo San Pedro away only.
Xelajú vs Deportivo San Pedro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Xelajú 0 · draws 0 · Deportivo San Pedro 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Deportivo San Pedro | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Marquense v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-10-03
- Cobán Imperial vs Malacateco 2026-10-03
- Guastatoya vs Aurora — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Comunicaciones v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-05