CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma preview
In the fixture between CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Marathon at 52%, while Atlético Choloma stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 13% chance. CD Marathon's expected goals are 1.52 compared to Atlético Choloma's 0.86, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 43%. Recent form shows CD Marathon with L-D-W-D-L-W and Atlético Choloma with L-W-W-L-W-L, which could influence the match dynamics.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma: model vs market
| Source | CD Marathon | Draw | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (CD Marathon / Atlético Choloma)
- 0.97 / 0.83
- Defence rating (CD Marathon / Atlético Choloma)
- 0.80 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CD Marathon goals. Columns: Atlético Choloma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Atlético Choloma | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.15 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CD Marathon or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Choloma) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma recent form
CD Marathon
2W 2D 2L
Atlético Choloma
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CD Marathon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Choloma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CD Marathon at home only, Atlético Choloma away only.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: CD Marathon 3 · draws 1 · Atlético Choloma 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Atlético Choloma | 0-1 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-01 | CD Marathon | 0-1 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-11 | Atlético Choloma | 0-0 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-27 | Atlético Choloma | 0-4 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | CD Marathon | 1-0 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua 2026-11-07
- CD Olimpia v Olancho — match page 2026-11-08
- Platense FC vs Génesis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- CD Marathon, previous: CD Marathon vs Platense FC prediction
- Atlético Choloma, previous: Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente: odds and pick