Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua preview
In the fixture between Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Motagua at 41% to win, compared to Lobos Upnfm's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. CD Motagua has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.20, while Lobos Upnfm sits at 0.91, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
However, Lobos Upnfm's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches, which could disrupt the expected outcome. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 35% and both teams to score at 43%, suggesting a low-scoring affair might be more likely. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua: model vs market
| Source | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | CD Motagua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Motagua)
- 1.00 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Motagua)
- 0.89 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lobos Upnfm goals. Columns: CD Motagua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 25% | 4.02 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| CD Motagua | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.37 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lobos Upnfm or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Motagua) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win by 2+ | 20% | 5.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua recent form
Lobos Upnfm
4W 1D 1L
CD Motagua
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lobos Upnfm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Motagua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lobos Upnfm at home only, CD Motagua away only.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lobos Upnfm 1 · draws 2 · CD Motagua 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | CD Motagua | 4-1 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-01 | Lobos Upnfm | 2-1 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-11 | CD Motagua | 2-0 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-28 | Lobos Upnfm | 0-0 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | CD Motagua | 3-3 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- CD Olimpia v Olancho — match page 2026-11-08
- Platense FC vs Génesis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana 2026-11-08
- CD Marathon v Atlético Choloma — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Lobos Upnfm, previous: Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm: odds and pick
- CD Motagua, previous: Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua prediction