Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja preview
In the match between Juticalpa and Estrella Roja, the 1X2 probabilities show Estrella Roja at 54%, while Juticalpa sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Estrella Roja's expected goals are 2.19 compared to Juticalpa's 1.41, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, Juticalpa's recent form includes a win after four losses, which could suggest a potential turnaround. Both teams have a high likelihood of scoring, with 68% for both teams to score and 70% for Over 2.5 goals. These factors could influence the outcome, making it less straightforward than the numbers suggest.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja: model vs market
| Source | Juticalpa | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Juticalpa / Estrella Roja)
- 0.75 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Juticalpa / Estrella Roja)
- 1.41 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juticalpa goals. Columns: Estrella Roja goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juticalpa | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Estrella Roja | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juticalpa or draw) | 46% | 2.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Estrella Roja) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja recent form
Juticalpa
1W 0D 5L
Estrella Roja
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juticalpa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Estrella Roja away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juticalpa at home only, Estrella Roja away only.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Juticalpa 0 · draws 0 · Estrella Roja 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Estrella Roja | 5-2 | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua 2026-11-07
- CD Olimpia v Olancho — match page 2026-11-08
- Platense FC vs Génesis — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana 2026-11-08
- CD Marathon v Atlético Choloma — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Juticalpa, previous: CD Olimpia – Juticalpa, 2026-11-05
- Estrella Roja, previous: Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua prediction