CD Marathon vs Olancho preview
In the upcoming match between CD Marathon and Olancho, the 1X2 probabilities show CD Marathon at 49%, a draw at 34%, and Olancho at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 20% of the time according to our model. CD Marathon has an expected goals figure of 1.15, while Olancho sits at 0.56, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the match could see fewer goals than expected, as the chances for Over 2.5 goals are only 25% and both teams to score stands at 31%. CD Marathon's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Olancho has struggled with 4 draws and 2 losses in the same period. This context could influence the outcome.
CD Marathon vs Olancho: model vs market
| Source | CD Marathon | Draw | Olancho |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CD Marathon and Olancho expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.71
- Attack rating (CD Marathon / Olancho)
- 1.05 / 0.64
- Defence rating (CD Marathon / Olancho)
- 0.68 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CD Marathon vs Olancho score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CD Marathon goals. Columns: Olancho goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CD Marathon vs Olancho goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CD Marathon vs Olancho
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Olancho | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 4.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.28 |
| No | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CD Marathon or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Olancho) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win by 2+ | 22% | 4.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CD Marathon and Olancho recent form
CD Marathon
4W 1D 1L
Olancho
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CD Marathon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olancho away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CD Marathon at home only, Olancho away only.
CD Marathon vs Olancho head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: CD Marathon 3 · draws 2 · Olancho 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | CD Marathon | 0-2 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-21 | Olancho | 1-1 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-28 | CD Marathon | 2-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-12 | Olancho | 0-3 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-01 | CD Marathon | 2-1 | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-24 | Olancho | 1-1 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
- CD Olimpia vs Real Espana 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- CD Marathon, previous: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon prediction
- Olancho, previous: Olancho v Atletico Independiente analysis