Olancho vs Atletico Independiente Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Olancho vs Atletico Independiente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olancho	Draw	Atletico Independiente
Model	42%	35%	22%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	35%	22%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.04 vs 0.68.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olancho and Atletico Independiente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04Olancho

0.68Atletico Independiente

Total expected goals: 1.72
Attack rating (Olancho / Atletico Independiente): 0.65 / 0.76
Defence rating (Olancho / Atletico Independiente): 0.71 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olancho vs Atletico Independiente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.1% 10.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 1 17.3% 14.0% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2 9.6% 6.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Olancho goals. Columns: Atletico Independiente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olancho vs Atletico Independiente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%

Over 1.5 53%

Over 2.5 25%

Over 3.5 10%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olancho vs Atletico Independiente

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olancho	42%	2.38
	Draw	35%	2.82
	Atletico Independiente	22%	4.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	25%	4.01
	Under 2.5	75%	1.33
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.00
	No	67%	1.50
Double chance	1X (Olancho or draw)	78%	1.29
	12 (either side)	65%	1.55
	X2 (draw or Atletico Independiente)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Olancho win by 2+	17%	5.75
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Olancho and Atletico Independiente recent form

Olancho 1W 4D 1L

Atletico Independiente 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Olancho at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-0
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Independiente away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Olancho at home only, Atletico Independiente away only.

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Prediction snapshot Olancho to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Olancho