Génesis vs CD Olimpia: model vs market
| Source | Génesis | Draw | CD Olimpia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Génesis and CD Olimpia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Génesis / CD Olimpia)
- 0.92 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Génesis / CD Olimpia)
- 0.69 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Génesis vs CD Olimpia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Génesis goals. Columns: CD Olimpia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Génesis vs CD Olimpia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Génesis vs CD Olimpia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 32% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| CD Olimpia | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Génesis or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Olimpia) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Olimpia win by 2+ | 18% | 5.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Génesis and CD Olimpia recent form
Génesis
2W 2D 2L
CD Olimpia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Génesis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Olimpia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Génesis at home only, CD Olimpia away only.
Génesis vs CD Olimpia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Génesis 1 · draws 0 · CD Olimpia 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Génesis | 0-2 | CD Olimpia | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-26 | CD Olimpia | 1-0 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-09 | Génesis | 6-2 | CD Olimpia | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-13 | CD Olimpia | 3-2 | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional |
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