Estrella Roja vs Real Espana Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Estrella Roja vs Real Espana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Estrella Roja	Draw	Real Espana
Model	20%	25%	55%
Market	—	—	—
Published	20%	25%	55%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.06.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Estrella Roja and Real Espana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Estrella Roja

1.87Real Espana

Total expected goals: 2.93
Attack rating (Estrella Roja / Real Espana): 1.06 / 1.11
Defence rating (Estrella Roja / Real Espana): 1.33 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estrella Roja vs Real Espana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 9.0% 9.4% 5.8% 4.2% 1 4.6% 11.6% 9.9% 6.2% 4.4% 2 3.0% 5.6% 5.2% 3.3% 2.3% 3 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 4+ 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Estrella Roja goals. Columns: Real Espana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estrella Roja vs Real Espana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estrella Roja vs Real Espana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Estrella Roja	20%	4.98
	Draw	25%	4.07
	Real Espana	55%	1.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.79
	Under 2.5	44%	2.27
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.78
	No	44%	2.28
Double chance	1X (Estrella Roja or draw)	45%	2.24
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Real Espana)	80%	1.25
Handicap -1	Real Espana win by 2+	33%	3.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Estrella Roja and Real Espana recent form

Estrella Roja 1W 3D 2L

Real Espana 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estrella Roja at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-1
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 2.25
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Real Espana away

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-0
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estrella Roja at home only, Real Espana away only.

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Prediction snapshot Real Espana to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Real Espana