Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon: model vs market
| Source | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 31% | 49% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 31% | 49% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Marathon)
- 0.74 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Lobos Upnfm / CD Marathon)
- 0.99 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lobos Upnfm goals. Columns: CD Marathon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 20% | 4.90 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| CD Marathon | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lobos Upnfm or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or CD Marathon) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win by 2+ | 24% | 4.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon recent form
Lobos Upnfm
2W 1D 3L
CD Marathon
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lobos Upnfm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lobos Upnfm at home only, CD Marathon away only.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lobos Upnfm 0 · draws 2 · CD Marathon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | CD Marathon | 2-0 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-25 | Lobos Upnfm | 1-1 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-04 | CD Marathon | 2-0 | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-18 | Lobos Upnfm | 2-2 | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
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- Estrella Roja v Real Espana — match page 2026-10-11
- Olancho vs Atletico Independiente — team news & stats 2026-10-11