CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma preview
CD Motagua faces Atlético Choloma with a strong 66% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.25 for Motagua and 0.78 for Choloma. However, the match could see a different outcome if Choloma improves their recent form, as they have won two of their last six matches.
The market suggests a 33% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance for both teams to score. Given that CD Motagua has won all four of their last head-to-head encounters, they are favored to continue this trend. Yet, if Choloma manages to find their scoring touch, they could challenge Motagua's dominance.
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma: model vs market
| Source | CD Motagua | Draw | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 32% | 22% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | -26% | +14% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CD Motagua, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD Motagua | 1.29 | 1.29 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 5.30 | +0.00 |
| Atlético Choloma | 8.97 | 8.97 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (CD Motagua / Atlético Choloma)
- 0.89 / 0.83
- Defence rating (CD Motagua / Atlético Choloma)
- 0.73 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CD Motagua goals. Columns: Atlético Choloma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Atlético Choloma | 13% | 7.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.51 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CD Motagua or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlético Choloma) | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma recent form
CD Motagua
3W 1D 2L
Atlético Choloma
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CD Motagua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Choloma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CD Motagua at home only, Atlético Choloma away only.
CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: CD Motagua 4 · draws 0 · Atlético Choloma 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | CD Motagua | 5-1 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-08 | Atlético Choloma | 1-3 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-09 | CD Motagua | 2-1 | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-10 | Atlético Choloma | 0-3 | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional |
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