Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik preview
In the match between Keflavik and KR Reykjavik, the 1X2 probabilities show KR Reykjavik at 56% to win compared to Keflavik's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals indicate Keflavik at 1.80 and KR Reykjavik at 2.39, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the visitors.
Both teams to score has a 76% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 79%. However, recent form could impact these predictions, as Keflavik has struggled with 4 losses in their last 5 matches. In contrast, KR Reykjavik has shown better form with 4 wins in their last 6 games. This discrepancy could lead to unexpected results.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik: model vs market
| Source | Keflavik | Draw | KR Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 21% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| Published | 24% | 19% | 56% |
| Edge | +6% | +2% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik odds movement
Median bookmaker price on KR Reykjavik, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keflavik | 4.46 | 4.04 | -0.42 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| KR Reykjavik | 1.54 | 1.57 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Keflavik and KR Reykjavik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.19
- Attack rating (Keflavik / KR Reykjavik)
- 0.86 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Keflavik / KR Reykjavik)
- 1.07 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Keflavik goals. Columns: KR Reykjavik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keflavik | 24% | 4.14 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.13 | |
| KR Reykjavik | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Keflavik or draw) | 44% | 2.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or KR Reykjavik) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | KR Reykjavik win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Keflavik and KR Reykjavik recent form
Keflavik
1W 1D 4L
KR Reykjavik
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Keflavik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-3
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
KR Reykjavik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.42
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.9 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Keflavik at home only, KR Reykjavik away only.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Keflavik 1 · draws 2 · KR Reykjavik 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Keflavik | 3-2 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-04-12 | KR Reykjavik | 3-2 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-02-03 | KR Reykjavik | 2-0 | Keflavik | League Cup |
| 2023-06-28 | KR Reykjavik | 2-0 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-04-15 | Keflavik | 0-2 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-08-15 | Keflavik | 0-0 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-05-16 | KR Reykjavik | 1-0 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-02-26 | KR Reykjavik | 1-1 | Keflavik | League Cup |
| 2021-09-11 | Keflavik | 0-2 | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2021-07-12 | KR Reykjavik | 1-0 | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Keflavik, previous: Breidablik – Keflavik, 2026-10-11
- KR Reykjavik, previous: Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik prediction