Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan preview
In the match between Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan, the 1X2 probabilities show Thor Akureyri at 36% and Stjarnan at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Thor Akureyri winning 3 of their last 6 matches and Stjarnan winning 4 of their last 6.
The expected goals are close, with Thor Akureyri at 1.47 and Stjarnan at 1.48, suggesting a competitive match. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 56% and for both teams to score at 61%. However, the recent head-to-head record favors Stjarnan, who have won both of the last 2 encounters. This could impact the outcome despite the close numbers.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan: model vs market
| Source | Thor Akureyri | Draw | Stjarnan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| Published | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Edge | +1% | +5% | -6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stjarnan, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 3.40 | 2.58 | -0.81 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.20 | -0.05 |
| Stjarnan | 1.78 | 2.13 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Thor Akureyri / Stjarnan)
- 0.64 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Thor Akureyri / Stjarnan)
- 1.02 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Thor Akureyri goals. Columns: Stjarnan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Thor Akureyri | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Stjarnan | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Thor Akureyri or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Stjarnan) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win by 2+ | 18% | 5.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan recent form
Thor Akureyri
3W 0D 3L
Stjarnan
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Thor Akureyri at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-6
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stjarnan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.58
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Thor Akureyri at home only, Stjarnan away only.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Thor Akureyri 2 · draws 1 · Stjarnan 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Stjarnan | 4-2 | Thor Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-05-31 | Thor Akureyri | 1-3 | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-06-12 | Thor Akureyri | 0-1 | Stjarnan | Cup |
| 2024-02-18 | Thor Akureyri | 5-1 | Stjarnan | League Cup |
| 2022-02-19 | Thor Akureyri | 1-1 | Stjarnan | League Cup |
| 2019-03-09 | Thor Akureyri | 2-1 | Stjarnan | League Cup |
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Thor Akureyri, previous: Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar: odds and pick
- Stjarnan, previous: Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri prediction