Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri preview
In the match between Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri, Valur Reykjavik has a 43% chance to win, while KA Akureyri stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals total of 2.22 for Valur and 2.01 for KA. There is a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 78%.
Recent form shows Valur Reykjavik with a record of L-D-W-W-D-L, while KA Akureyri has W-W-L-W-D-L. Valur has dominated their last four head-to-head encounters with 3 wins and 1 draw against KA, who have not won any of those matches. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri: model vs market
| Source | Valur Reykjavik | Draw | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 21% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Published | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valur Reykjavik, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 2.02 | 2.10 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.92 | -0.06 |
| KA Akureyri | 2.96 | 2.71 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.23
- Attack rating (Valur Reykjavik / KA Akureyri)
- 1.06 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Valur Reykjavik / KA Akureyri)
- 1.23 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valur Reykjavik goals. Columns: KA Akureyri goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valur Reykjavik | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| KA Akureyri | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valur Reykjavik or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or KA Akureyri) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valur Reykjavik win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri recent form
Valur Reykjavik
2W 2D 2L
KA Akureyri
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valur Reykjavik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 2.23
- Goals against / match
- 2.54
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KA Akureyri away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-6
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 2.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valur Reykjavik at home only, KA Akureyri away only.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valur Reykjavik 6 · draws 2 · KA Akureyri 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Valur Reykjavik | 4-4 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-05-22 | KA Akureyri | 0-1 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-06-27 | KA Akureyri | 2-5 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-04-23 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-08-06 | KA Akureyri | 1-0 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2024-07-02 | KA Akureyri | 3-2 | Valur Reykjavik | Cup |
| 2024-05-11 | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-08-07 | Valur Reykjavik | 4-2 | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-05-13 | KA Akureyri | 0-4 | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-04-02 | KA Akureyri | 1-1 | Valur Reykjavik | League Cup |
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Valur Reykjavik, previous: Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur: odds and pick
- KA Akureyri, previous: Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri prediction