IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur: model vs market
| Source | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Draw | FH hafnarfjordur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -13% | +1% | +12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices FH hafnarfjordur below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FH hafnarfjordur, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2.30 | 2.75 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.60 | -0.02 |
| FH hafnarfjordur | 2.65 | 2.20 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and FH hafnarfjordur expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (IBV Vestmannaeyjar / FH hafnarfjordur)
- 0.60 / 1.17
- Defence rating (IBV Vestmannaeyjar / FH hafnarfjordur)
- 0.92 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals. Columns: FH hafnarfjordur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| FH hafnarfjordur | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw) | 55% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FH hafnarfjordur) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | FH hafnarfjordur win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and FH hafnarfjordur recent form
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0W 2D 4L
FH hafnarfjordur
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
FH hafnarfjordur away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home only, FH hafnarfjordur away only.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH hafnarfjordur head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 · draws 4 · FH hafnarfjordur 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | FH hafnarfjordur | 1-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-04-12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-1 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2026-02-12 | FH hafnarfjordur | 0-0 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | League Cup |
| 2025-08-24 | FH hafnarfjordur | 1-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2025-05-29 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-1 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-08-13 | FH hafnarfjordur | 2-1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-05-22 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-3 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2023-03-05 | FH hafnarfjordur | 1-5 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | League Cup |
| 2022-10-05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-1 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
| 2022-08-14 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 4-1 | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild |
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
- Valur Reykjavik v KA Akureyri — match page 2026-10-17
- Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar, previous: Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar: odds and pick
- FH hafnarfjordur, previous: Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur: odds and pick