Drenica Skënderaj vs Feronikeli Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Drenica Skënderaj vs Feronikeli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Drenica Skënderaj	Draw	Feronikeli
Model	51%	26%	22%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	26%	22%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.06.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Drenica Skënderaj and Feronikeli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Drenica Skënderaj

1.06Feronikeli

Total expected goals: 2.75
Attack rating (Drenica Skënderaj / Feronikeli): 0.97 / 0.78
Defence rating (Drenica Skënderaj / Feronikeli): 1.10 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Drenica Skënderaj vs Feronikeli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 5.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1 9.7% 12.6% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.2% 5.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.2% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Drenica Skënderaj goals. Columns: Feronikeli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Drenica Skënderaj vs Feronikeli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Drenica Skënderaj vs Feronikeli

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Drenica Skënderaj	51%	1.96
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Feronikeli	22%	4.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.93
	Under 2.5	48%	2.08
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.84
	No	46%	2.19
Double chance	1X (Drenica Skënderaj or draw)	78%	1.29
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Feronikeli)	49%	2.05
Handicap -1	Drenica Skënderaj win by 2+	28%	3.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Drenica Skënderaj and Feronikeli recent form

Drenica Skënderaj 1W 2D 3L

Feronikeli 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Drenica Skënderaj at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-3
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.80
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Feronikeli away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Drenica Skënderaj at home only, Feronikeli away only.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

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Drita vs Malisheva — team news & stats 2026-10-09
Vushtrria vs Gjilani 2026-10-10
Prishtina vs Dukagjini — team news & stats 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Drenica Skënderaj to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Drenica Skënderaj