Llapi vs Ballkani preview
In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Llapi and Ballkani, the model shows a 46% probability for a Ballkani win compared to 29% for Llapi. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have been inconsistent recently, with Llapi losing four of their last six matches, while Ballkani has won two of their last three.
The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 62% for Over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score. Expected goals are 1.41 for Llapi and 1.80 for Ballkani. A surprise result could occur if Llapi's home advantage plays a significant role, despite their recent form.
Llapi vs Ballkani: model vs market
| Source | Llapi | Draw | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Llapi and Ballkani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Llapi / Ballkani)
- 1.02 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Llapi / Ballkani)
- 1.53 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llapi vs Ballkani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llapi goals. Columns: Ballkani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llapi vs Ballkani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llapi vs Ballkani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llapi | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Ballkani | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llapi or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ballkani) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ballkani win by 2+ | 25% | 3.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Llapi and Ballkani recent form
Llapi
1W 0D 5L
Ballkani
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llapi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Ballkani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Llapi at home only, Ballkani away only.
Llapi vs Ballkani head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Llapi 4 · draws 4 · Ballkani 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Ballkani | 0-1 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-09 | Llapi | 2-0 | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-23 | Ballkani | 2-4 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-21 | Llapi | 2-2 | Ballkani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-05-17 | Ballkani | 0-1 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2025-03-29 | Llapi | 1-1 | Ballkani | Superliga |
| 2024-12-14 | Ballkani | 2-1 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2024-10-06 | Llapi | 0-0 | Ballkani | Superliga |
| 2024-05-18 | Llapi | 0-1 | Ballkani | Superliga |
| 2024-03-16 | Ballkani | 0-0 | Llapi | Superliga |
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